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Project Mirror: Aligning with EU Fit-for-55 and Energy Transition Goals – 2050 Pathways Explorer

Romania has finalised its National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP), setting ambitious targets to support the EU's 2030 climate goals. Originally due by 30 June 2024, the updated plan was submitted on 16 October 2024. It outlines Romania’s strategy to cut emissions, expand renewable energy, and improve energy efficiency. Key highlights include a 12.7% reduction in ESR sector emissions, a 62% cut in EU ETS emissions, and a 41% renewable energy share (RES) by 2030. The plan also aims for higher energy efficiency, capping final energy consumption at 22.47 Mtoe (261.3 TWh). For a detailed breakdown, including sector-specific strategies and policy measures, download the full slide deck.

A Regional Approach to Future-proofing CEE Industry

The industrial base of Central and Eastern Europe is a key driver of the region’s economy, and its transformation will be essential for maintaining regional manufacturing in the long term. Transforming it will require concerted action by CEE states as well as a regional approach to exploit synergies, improve cost-effectiveness, and cooperate on mutually beneficial solutions. However, to date there has been insufficient action and regional coordination to enable an industrial transformation which capitalises on the region’s strengths. This publication presents a bird’s eye view of the region and its countries, reflects on the opportunities for cooperation, and puts forward concrete suggestions for anchoring the new industrial reality of Central and Eastern Europe in clean industry hubs fit for the future.​ Introduction and aims of this study: Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) has significant potential to become a pole of clean industrial production, but lacks the regional coordination essential for an efficient industrial transformation​ The current nationally siloed approach misses key opportunities to deliver industrial transformation, including coordinated infrastructure planning to leverage key resources across the region, and exploiting a regional market for industrial products​ The need for regional coordination comes in a time of pressure for CEE heavy industry to transform by decarbonising existing manufacturing and enabling new cleantech manufacturing, which will be essential to maintain the regional industrial base long-term, even if it poses challenges in the short-term​ Rising carbon prices, an incoming phase-out of free allowances under the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS), new regulations to nudge the consumption of lower-carbon industrial products, and an aggressive global cleantech race all mean that CEE countries must act now​ At the same time, the industrial policy landscape of the EU is undergoing a massive shift in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which exacerbated the existing pressure of high energy prices, and the 2024 Draghi report, which highlighted major gaps in the EU’s industrial competitiveness further addressed in the recently-published EU Competitiveness Compass​ Competitiveness will be a major driver for industrial transformation in the EU, and the forthcoming Clean Industrial Deal is expected to lay down rules and incentives for decarbonising industrial production in the EU, anchored in competitively advantageous sectors and promoting a coordinated approach​ Given the current context, it will be key for CEE to unlock cost efficiencies for its industrial transformation and align its national priorities to ensure that advancing EU competitiveness does not come at the expense of strategic considerations for autonomy and cohesion​ The purpose of this study is to reflect on the specificities of CEE countries which contextualise their outlook for industrial transformation, and to provide a high-level assessment for the benefits of a regional approach anchored in competitive and strategic industrial clusters​

Achizițiile publice ecologice. Primul pas esențial pentru decarbonizarea industriilor grele din România

EPG a publicat două analize detaliate despre schimbările necesare pentru ca industriile grele din România să funcționeze într-o economie decarbonizată. Aceste studii subliniază măsurile esențiale pentru tranziția industrială și reducerea emisiilor de carbon. Necesitatea Adoptării Achizițiilor Publice Ecologice A doua analiză explică nevoia urgentă ca autoritățile să promoveze utilizarea materialelor verzi prin intermediul unui sistem de achiziții publice ecologice. Din păcate, la acest capitol, România se află printre ultimele țări din Uniunea Europeană. Contribuția Industriei Grele la Economia României Industria românească reprezintă aproximativ o cincime din valoarea adăugată brută și din ocuparea forței de muncă. Aceasta contribuie semnificativ la economia națională. Totuși, fără măsuri concrete de decarbonizare, industriile grele, precum oțelul, cimentul și produsele chimice, vor avea dificultăți majore de competitivitate în Europa. În plus, vor suporta costuri din ce în ce mai mari asociate emisiilor de carbon. Importanța unui Sistem de Achiziții Publice Ecologice Un sistem de achiziții publice ecologice, bine implementat, poate sprijini procesul de decarbonizare al industriei grele. Acest lucru este esențial în special pentru sectoarele oțelului și cimentului. România trebuie să adopte cât mai curând un Plan național de acțiune pentru achizițiile publice ecologice. În prezent, țara noastră este unul dintre puținele state membre ale UE care nu are un plan obligatoriu pentru aceste achiziții. Măsuri Propuse pentru Îmbunătățirea Achizițiilor Publice Ecologice România trebuie să stabilească o listă extinsă de produse, servicii și proiecte pentru care să aplice criterii de mediu în procesele de achiziție. De asemenea, autoritățile competente ar trebui să-și consolideze capacitățile necesare pentru a implementa acest sistem prin înființarea unui organism central dedicat achizițiilor ecologice. Necesitatea Formării Continue Pentru a spori capacitatea autorităților contractante de a derula proceduri complexe de achiziții publice ecologice, România trebuie să ofere formare continuă în acest domeniu. Această formare trebuie să fie disponibilă atât pentru autoritățile contractante, cât și pentru operatorii economici. În acest fel, interesul producătorilor și al ofertanților pentru produse durabile va crește semnificativ. Citește primul studiu din această serie AICI.

The Cost of Romania’s Industrial Transition

Romania’s industrial production is essential for the national economy, but faces multiple challenges. At one-fifth of Gross Value Added and workforce employment, Romania’s industry is a significant economic contributor. Heavy industry (steel, cement, chemicals and others) will face rising emissions costs and major competitiveness issues in the EU’s transition. At the same time, decarbonising heavy industry comes with significant capital and operational costs, as well as competition for high-value resources such as hydrogen. The costs and benefits of overcoming the transition challenge are significant. This study presents a high-level cost assessment of decarbonisation pathways for Romania’s primary steel, cement, and chemical sectors. In the cement sector: Deep decarbonisation will be unachievable without carbon capture and storage, which will require state support until green clinker becomes competitive However, without decarbonisation clinker will cost 10 times more in 2050 than today due to emissions costs, significantly outweighing any green clinker cost premium o At an estimated €900 million per average facility total payout under a simulated Carbon Contracts for Difference (CCfD) scheme running 2030-2044, cement will need other support instruments, such as Green Public Procurement, to bear the cost of its decarbonisation In primary steel production: The capital investments and increased OPEX costs of green steel could drive an increase in liquid steel costs of 25% by 2030, with green steel only becoming competitive with conventional steel towards 2050. But transitioning to green steel would save nearly €1.7 billion/year in emissions costs by 2050, and could yield revenues from surplus emissions allowances o The cost and availability of green hydrogen will be a major driver for successful decarbonisation of primary steel o The state support required until green steel becomes competitive could take the form of OPEX support under a CCfD scheme. In the chemicals sector: Electrifying industrial heat in the basic chemicals sector could bring significant energy cost savings and abate at least 17-25% of emissions The production of fertilisers will need to transition to green ammonia and apply additional decarbonisation measures to remain competitive, with public support likely required to cover a green ammonia premium and maintain competitiveness in the face of potentially cheap imports Affordable renewable hydrogen will be essential for Romania to minimise import dependence of fertilisers and even potentially become a green methanol producer. Without support for decarbonisation investments, there is a real risk of delocalising domestic production and increasing import dependence If no immediate action is taken, there is a risk of breaking up domestic supply chains and delocalising emissions-intensive production abroad (liquid steel, clinker, and ammonia production) However, importing green industrial products offers relatively limited cost advantages, at the expense of jobs, economic growth, and strategic autonomy for Romania An equitable combination of state support and private investment will be required to offset the cost advantages of relocating production and importing green products, and a mix of funding, fiscal, and market creation mechanisms will be required To maintain competitiveness, safeguard jobs, and become a green industrial production hub, Romania must take key actions: Trial a Green Public Procurement system for key infrastructure projects (including the use of steel and concrete), and evaluate the potential to expand to products such as vehicles and ships Chart a new course for its industrial policy, aligning with the Green Deal and forthcoming EU framework on industrial decarbonisation Evaluate detailed transition costs and set a clear target for public investment in industrial decarbonisation by 2030, both anchored in concrete and mature decarbonisation plans which must be communicated by industrial operators Design and implement a Carbon Contracts for Difference scheme for the cement and steel sectors Publish a detailed infrastructure deployment plan, including CO2 transport and storage and hydrogen infrastructure