This policy paper examines the implications of recent economic and geopolitical developments for Romania’s energy transition and industrial competitiveness.
EPG experts points out that the global landscape is marked by structural vulnerabilities, economic fragmentation, and increasingly fraught geopolitics, as reflected in the recent energy crises. In this context, a decline in trade volume is anticipated in 2026, followed by a slow recovery, amid intensifying protectionist tariffs and supply chain adjustments. The energy transition will need to be acclimatised to the changing world order. Romania’s ability to implement its energy transition is dependent on supply chains’ resilience, especially for low-carbon technologies.
The analysis identifies opportunities for green growth. Romania has comparative advantages in fields such as electronics, precision measuring devices, and machinery, and its experience in the nuclear energy sector and the growth of the IT industry can support the expansion of service exports. Furthermore, the country’s geographic location could be advantageous advantageous as Ukraine’s reconstruction begins, as well as for potential nearshoring to support European green manufacturing.
At the same time, the report highlights a number of constraints. Dependence on critical imports from outside the European Union creates vulnerabilities in the context of changes in global trade policy. Energy infrastructure requires modernisation, and exposure to the effects of climate change raises additional concerns regarding grid reliability. Labor market developments, including migration and skills mismatches, as well as administrative capacity and the stability of the legislative framework, influence development prospects and the ability to attract investment.
Author’s Insights:
“The proposed recommendations aim to support a coherent adaptation of public policies to changes in the economic and geopolitical environment, so that Romania can capitalise on the opportunities associated with the energy transition and reduce existing vulnerabilities.
In this regard, the strategic promotion of industrial specialisation by leveraging exports with a comparative advantage in the production of low-carbon technologies is intended to strengthen economic competitiveness. Adapting human capital to the needs of a net-zero economy, through dedicated educational programmes and mechanisms for workforce re-skilling and retention, is essential for the efficient functioning of the labor market.
The costs of the energy transition can be reduced through integrated infrastructure planning. At the same time, the development of policies that explicitly address issues related to distribution and energy poverty is necessary to ensure the social sustainability of the transition and maintain public support.”
– Nadia Maki
For or further details and media inquiries, please contact Nadia Maki: nadia.maki@epg-thinktank.org
This policy paper was written as part of the European Climate Initiative (EUKI), funded by Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) on behalf of the Federal Ministry for the Environment, Climate Action, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMUKN).